What does Russia want?

The reason behind the ongoing war lies in deep historical roots. In an article by Vladimir Putin dated July 12th, 2021, he states that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, referring to the history of the Ancient Rus. He also claims that the Ukrainian language appeared due to territorial fragmentation, calling it a dialect of the Russian language. He is convinced that the idea of the Ukrainian people as a nation separate from the Russians has no historical basis, stating “modern Ukraine is entirely the product of the Soviet era. We know and remember well that it was shaped – for a significant part – on the lands of historical Russia.”

Therefore, Russia denies any accusations of invasion and states that moving troops across the border is a forced measure, and Russia is simply trying to protect itself. The Kremlin is concerned by NATO’s and the USA’s growing support for Ukraine and perceives it as a threat to their national security. After a major build-up of troops in spring of 2021, Russia continued moving troops and military equipment near the border of Ukraine. Commercial satellite imagery and social media posts from November and December 2021 showed armour, missiles, and other heavy weaponry moving toward Ukraine with no official explanation. By December, more than 100,000 troops were in place near the border. 

It is not only the Ukrainian territory that compiles Russian interests, but also the eastward expansion of NATO into the post-Soviet space. Most of the former Warsaw Pact countries are now EU Member States, with the EU having set up the Eastern Partnership programme for all others, except Russia. The Eastern Partnership consists of different initiatives for cooperation and possibly accession to the EU, which has not been received well by Russia. NATO’s Eastern Partnership members were either former Soviet countries or under Russian sphere of interests in the past. Thus, a certain percentage of the countries’ residents are ethnic Russians and Russia has declared itself to be the protector of these Russians making it easier for Russia to ‘justify’ its military actions. 

In mid-December 2021, Russia issued a list of demands it says must be met to defuse the crisis and lower tensions in Europe. The demands include a ban on Ukraine entering NATO and a reduction of NATO troops and military equipment in Eastern Europe, including Poland, the former Soviet countries of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Balkan countries, in order for its military forces to be withdrawn. Reduction of NATO troops would return NATO forces to where they were stationed in 1997, before their eastward expansion.

NATO’s strategic priorities and stance on the conflict

Ukraine is a substantial partner for NATO ​​with the 1997 Charter on a Distinctive Partnership remaining the basic foundation underpinning NATO-Ukraine relations. The NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) directs cooperative activities and provides a forum for consultation between the Allies and Ukraine on security issues of common concern. As Ukraine is not a NATO member, it does not have the same security guarantees as NATO members. Cooperation between NATO and Ukraine is exercised on political and practical levels. On 12 June 2020, Ukraine was granted the Enhanced Opportunities Partner status. ​​The NATO Representation Ukraine leads on the provision of strategic-level advice under NATO’s Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine.

NATO strives to secure a lasting peace in Europe, therefore seeing the outbreak of crises and conflicts beyond Allied borders can jeopardise this objective. In April 2016, NATO announced that the alliance would deploy four battalions to Eastern Europe, rotating troops through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter possible future Russian aggression elsewhere in Europe, particularly in the Baltics. The Russian “legal guarantees” require NATO to withdraw troops and weapons ​​deployed to countries that entered the alliance after 1997, as well as banning Ukraine from joining NATO. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has pledged to engage "in good faith and on substance" in talks with Russia, but he said the alliance will not compromise on core principles, including the right of nations to decide whether they want to join.

What would it mean for the EU countries?

In case Russia further attacks Ukraine, it would threaten the economic stability and national security of the European Union. Two important interests are at stake for the EU. First of all, ensuring political stability in its Eastern territory due to Ukraine sharing borders with EU Member States. And second, respect for the principle that European borders cannot be changed by force. This has been a core principle of EU policy since the signing of the Helsinki Final Act in 1975, and it was violated by Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Thus, the EU’s credibility as a united and important international actor is on the line.

The annexation of Crimea increased Russia’s strategic footprint in the region, therefore it poses threats to the Baltic states that Russia could take to weaken their independence and territorial integrity, given that Putin puts a lot of emphasis on protecting the rights of Russian ethnic minorities that live abroad.

The rising tensions have also re-ignited the debate in both Finland and Sweden as to whether they should now join NATO. The overarching concern in the West - Washington, NATO, the UK, and the EU - is less the possibility of conventional warfare over Ukraine, and far more, that Moscow is seeking to divide and destabilise Europe - shaking up the balance of continental power in the Kremlin's favour.

There is also a widespread concern in EU Member States about gas supplies from Russia. Europe is becoming more reliant on Russian gas supply, especially with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline being almost launched. In case, if Russia further attacks, the EU will face greater economic loss. Any interruptions to Russia's gas supply to Europe would exacerbate an energy crisis caused by a shortage of the fuel. Besides, in case of a further attack, the EU could face a migration crisis with millions of Ukrainians flooding Europe.

• Sanctions

In March of 2014, the European Union and the USA imposed a series of measures in response to Russia's actions in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, including economic sanctions targeting individuals, entities, and specific sectors of the Russian economy. EU sanctions include travel bans and asset freezes of specific individuals. The EU has imposed these sanctions largely in cooperation with the United States of America. EU sanctions are similar, but not identical, to U.S. sanctions. Imposing EU sanctions requires the unanimous agreement of all EU Member States. Most EU sanctions are imposed for a defined period of time (usually six months or a year). Furthermore, unanimity among EU Member States is required to renew (i.e., extend) sanctions.

The US and EU sanctions do not always align, making it difficult to be effective. Europe is more dependent on Russian energy than the USA. Europe also conducts a larger portion of its foreign trade with Russia, therefore, the United States’ European allies, especially Germany and Italy, are more hesitant to impose sanctions on Russia. In response, Russia responded to the imposition of the sanctions on its energy, defence, and financial sectors by announcing a ban on fruits and vegetables from the EU, the United States, Australia, Canada, and Norway.

Studies suggest sanctions have had a negative but relatively modest impact on Russia’s growth. Changes in world oil prices and the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic appear to have had a greater impact than sanctions on the Russian economy. 

• Minsk Accords

There were two cease-fire agreements signed in 2015 between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists in Minsk, the capital of Belarus: Minsk I and Minsk II.
Minsk I: prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid, and the withdrawal of heavy weapons; the agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides.
Minsk II: the agreement between the representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the leaders of the DNR and the LNR. The agreement consists of 13 points, requiring mainly an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire and withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides. Generally, the deal set out a series of military and political steps that remain unimplemented. A major blockage has been Russia's insistence that it is not a party to the conflict and therefore is not bound by its terms. 

• Negotiations

On January 10th, the US and Russian officials met in Geneva for the talks to defuse tensions over Ukraine. The meeting is seen as a possible first step towards rekindling dialogue between Moscow and Washington, but diplomats on both sides were pessimistic over the prospects for progress. The USA and Ukraine’s other Western allies, including the European Union and the United Kingdom, have promised to impose severe penalties on Russia – expected to take the shape of sweeping sanctions – if it launches an offensive. But Vladimir Putin has denied he plans to invade Ukraine and blamed the US-headed NATO transatlantic military alliance for undermining the region’s security. The negotiations were followed by Russia-NATO talks in Brussels on January 12th, and a meeting in Vienna of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on the 13th. 

​​What are the possible scenarios of further invasion of Ukraine?

There is no agreement and much discord about what to do if Russia does attack Ukraine, either directly by land, sea, and air or indirectly, using asymmetric warfare methods, covert ops, special forces, and “technical” countermeasures. As well as there is no clear understanding of how far Putin will go this time. According to the US government, attacks could include combinations of aggressive cyber or physical sabotage, assassinations, air and rocket assaults on Ukrainian military or civilian infrastructure, limited military incursions, or a full-scale land invasion.

In early 2022, the United States and European allies said they would impose additional sanctions in the event of further Russian aggression against Ukraine. Such sanctions could include greater restrictions on transactions with Russian financial institutions and U.S. technology exports. The ultimate economic hit would be to disconnect Russia's banking system from the international SWIFT payment system. The suspension of Russia’s pending Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project would also be a key threat. But Germany’s gas regulator is in charge of that decision. Further additional sanctions, including on Russia’s energy sector and secondary market transactions in Russian sovereign debt, also may be under consideration.

This is a complex topic to comprehend. To understand it better and arrive at solutions, we must see all the possible scenarios and think from different perspectives and interests. If Russia does intervene in Ukraine with military forces, which economic and political consequences will this war bear for the EU and the US? Is there a possibility of a migration crisis in case of a Ukraine-Russia conflict escalation with millions of Ukrainians escaping the country and becoming asylum seekers in the EU (especially in European countries sharing borders with Ukraine, such as Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary)? Which steps can be taken to prepare for the massive migration of Ukrainian refugees to the EU? Have there been any similar measures taken in response to the European Migration Crisis 2015 (successful and unsuccessful measures to accommodate Syrian refugees in the EU)?

Considering the economic effects it would bring to the EU, the military invasion of Russia in Ukraine will obstruct the EU from buying Russian gas. What are the possible gas alternatives the EU can consider to be more independent from Russian gas? How can the EU Member States minimise dependency on Russian gas supplies? With France, Germany, the UK being the most powerful decision-makers, and having differences in their approaches to Russia that weakens unity within the EU and among NATO members, what could be done to strengthen the unity within these counties?

Given that major international media tend to enlighten the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in such ways that reflect the political interests of the divergent political stances, how can decision-makers and European citizens protect themselves from propaganda and fake news? Which measures should be taken to prevent Russian informational speculations?

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